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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Knowledge Modeling IBIS |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | IBIS structures thinking about complex questions as a sequence of issues, ideas, and arguments. The method keeps discussions open without forcing them into premature consensus. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-3 h | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Issue Map, Positions, Argument Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | RationaleKnowledgeDecision | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |