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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper notes move from an inbox to action, project and calendar collections.
Operations
Getting Things Done
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.With many open commitments and ideas in daily life, a reliable external storage system emerges. The method relieves the mind so priority and context don't have to compete in memory.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-2 h Setup, laufend10-20 min daily45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group112-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAction Lists, Project List, Review RoutineDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ProductivityPlanningTasksExecution
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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