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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighMediumMedium
Timedifferent
20–45 minHalber Tag45-60 min1-2 Wochen pro Iteration
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group5-202-82-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
ResilienceOperationsIncident
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
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