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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Growth A/B Testing |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 2-4 h | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |