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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Flywheel.
Growth
Flywheel
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
20–45 min60-120 min1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group3-8Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logFlywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment BacklogInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
GrowthRetentionConversion
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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