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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Evaporating Cloud |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 3-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |