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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |