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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | 2-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |