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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |  Product Discovery Learning Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. | The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 1-5 Tage | 25-40 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 6-30 Experten | Nutzertraffic | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision | Learning Card with evidence and next action |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning |