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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 60-180 min | 30-90 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 4-20 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tags1 shared | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | DecisionTreeOptions | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |