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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.When an initiative stalls, the limit often lies not in the idea but in hard or soft boundary conditions. Constraint Analysis separates these limits and shows which of them can actually be shaped.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighHighLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min2-6 h2-8 h30-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group3-82-82-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk PlanConstraint List, Hard/Soft Classification, Option Impact Notes, Decision Boundaries
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
ConstraintsDecisionPlanningOptions
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