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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations Causal Factor Analysis |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 2-6 h | 2-6 h | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 3-8 | 3-10 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |