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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighLowHigh
Timedifferent
20–45 min2-6 h15-30 min2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group3-82-63-10
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention IdeasRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresEvent Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline
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