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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of an eight-panel idea sheet with varied sketches beside a timer set to eight minutes.
Innovation
Crazy 8s
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.With only a few minutes available and a still-fuzzy solution search, the method forces a wide range of variants. It produces fast sketches before the first idea can settle in, making different directions directly comparable and open to further development.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHighLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min8-15 min1-4 Wochen45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group1-101-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logSketch Set, Idea Shortlist, Direction OptionsExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
BrainstormingSketchingSpeedDivergenceDesign sprint
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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