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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of Cost of Delay with its method-specific working model.
Delivery
Cost of Delay
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.Helps clarify scope, order, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, constraints, and sequence manageable. The result is captured as a Cost of Delay table and prioritization sequence.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowHighLowMedium
Timedifferent
20–45 min90-180 min1-5 Tage45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group3-8Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logCoD Table, Prioritization SequenceInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
PrioritizationDeliveryEconomicsDecision
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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