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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for Concierge MVP
Product Discovery
Concierge MVP
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When an idea can first fail or grow through genuine hands-on support, it relies on manual work instead of automation. It shows whether user value holds up even under manual execution.For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
20–45 min1-4 Wochen30-90 min45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group3-10 Kunden1-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logConcierge Learnings, Service Blueprint, MVP RisksDecision Tree, Option Map, Assumption ListAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
MVPValidationServiceDiscovery
DecisionTreeOptions
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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