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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Growth A/B Testing |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 20-45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 1-10 | 1-6 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |