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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking System Dynamics Simulation |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | System Dynamics Simulation makes assumptions about time, delay, and feedback testable through experiments. It draws relationships, patterns, and feedback loops. The result is captured as a simulation model and scenario reports. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 45-90 min | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 1-5 Modellierende, Stakeholder asynchron | 1-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Simulation Model, Scenario Reports | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Systems thinkingDynamicsSimulationAnalysis | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics |