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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |  Decision Making Red Teaming |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. | For strategic decisions with high reach, agreement and gut feeling are often not enough. Red teaming brings deliberate opposition into the situation and tests where a plan breaks under real counterarguments. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 45-90 min | 60-180 min | 1-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 2-8 | 4-20 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes | Challenge Findings, Risk Register, Mitigation Plan |
Tags1 shared | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ComplexitySensemakingDecision | RiskDecisionSensemaking |