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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of a Lean Canvas with nine fields, notes, and one highlighted learning risk.
Product Strategy
Lean Canvas
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When an early product bet still has too many open points, it brings target group, problem, and assumptions into a single view. It condenses the idea so core risks become nameable.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMediumMedium
Timedifferent
20–45 min45-60 min45-90 min1-2 Wochen pro Iteration
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group2-81-62-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingLean Canvas, Core Assumptions, Experiment BacklogPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
StartupLeanAssumptionsBusiness model
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
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