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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Business Model Stress Test with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Business Model Stress Test
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario.When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
20–45 min45-60 minHalf day1-2 Wochen pro Iteration
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group2-83-82-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingStress Test Report, Action Plan per ScenarioPrioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions
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