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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Product Discovery Fake Door Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-3 h | 1-5 Tage | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 1-8 | Nutzertraffic | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Click Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | SensemakingDecisionRationale | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery |