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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Decision Making Argument Mapping |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When statements, evidence, and counterarguments get mixed up, a debate quickly loses its structure. Argument Mapping breaks a thesis down into its reasoning and makes visible what it really rests on. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-3 h | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 1-8 | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Argument Map, Evidence Gaps, Decision Rationale | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | SensemakingDecisionRationale | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |