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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Operations ALPEN Method |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitysame | Low | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 10-20 min daily | 1-5 Tage | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 1 | Nutzertraffic | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Daily Plan, Time Estimates, Review Notes | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |