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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowHighLow
Timedifferent
20–45 min10-20 min daily2-6 h45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group13-102-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesFMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation ActionsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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