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Criterion
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration for ALPEN Method
Operations
ALPEN Method
A 5 Whys working surface connects an observable problem with evidenced causes, marked uncertainty and concrete countermeasures with ownership.
Operations
5 Whys
Paper illustration for Kepner-Tregoe
Operations
Kepner-Tregoe
Purposedifferent
In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.With an overloaded day full of too many tasks, a realistic picture of the day emerges. The method connects estimating, deciding, and buffer thinking so planning fits available energy and time.For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description.For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowLowHigh
Timedifferent
20–45 min10-20 min daily15-30 min2-8 h
Participantsdifferent
Small cross-functional group12-62-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopAsyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption logDaily Plan, Time Estimates, Review NotesRoot cause notes, CountermeasuresProblem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan
Tagsno overlap
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
PlanningTime managementProductivityOperations
Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving
Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations
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