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| Criterion |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Growth A/B Testing |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 20–45 min | 1-4 Wochen | 2-4 h | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | Small cross-functional group | 1-6 | 2-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Experiment results, Decision log, Learning summary | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |