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Criterion
Paper illustration of a Polarity Map with two poles and four quadrants
Systems Thinking
Polarity Mapping
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Purposedifferent
Polarity Mapping makes tensions between two opposing poles tangible, such as standardization and adaptation or control and autonomy. The method guards against making apparent either-or decisions prematurely.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumLowLow
Timedifferent
1-2 h45-60 min1-5 Tage45-90 min
Participantsdifferent
3-122-8Nutzertraffic2-8
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Polarity Map, Warning Signs, Balance ActionsAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingInterest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning NoteAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan
Tagsno overlap
Systems thinkingTradeoffsLeadership
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
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