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| Criterion |  Agile Planning Poker |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimates within the team diverge too much, it puts differing expectations on a common test bench. It separates rough complexity from unspoken assumptions. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 2-5 min je Item | 1-4 Wochen | 45-60 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 3-9 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Relative Estimates, Assumption Notes, Split Candidates | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationAgileRelative sizingTeam | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | EstimationExpertsForecasting |