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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 30-60 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 1-5 | 1-5 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |