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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 1-4 Wochen | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery |