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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-60 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 2-8 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |