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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |  Decision Making Delphi Method |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 2-5 | 6-30 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy |