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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Operations 5 Whys |  Operations A3 Problem Solving |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. | For a complex deviation with several people involved, the method bundles problem, analysis, and decision onto one page. It creates a shared working space where causes, countermeasures, and follow-up fit together. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | 15-30 min | 45-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 2-6 | 2-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Root cause notes, Countermeasures | A3 Report, Action Plan, Root Cause Analysis |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationExpertsForecasting | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving | LeanProblem solvingCoachingOperations |