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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Cynefin Workshop |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | When problems are unclear, chaotic, or only seemingly familiar, standard recipes fall short. A Cynefin Workshop sorts situations by the nature of their problem and connects them with matching action logic. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min | Half day | 60-180 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-10 | 3-8 | 4-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Cynefin Map, Domain-specific Actions, Sensemaking Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | ComplexitySensemakingDecision |