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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking VUCA Scan |  Business Strategy Business Model Stress Test |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | The VUCA Scan helps read difficult situations more precisely. Instead of treating unclarity as generally complicated, the method separates fast change, missing knowledge, systemic entanglement, and ambiguous interpretation. | A Business Model Stress Test checks how well a business model holds up under pressure and headwinds. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a stress-test report and action plan per scenario. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-90 min | Half day | Half day |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-10 | 3-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | VUCA Map, Response Options, Signal and Learning Plan | Stress Test Report, Action Plan per Scenario | Value Chain Map, Lever List |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | SensemakingUncertaintyComplexityStrategyForesight | StrategyBusiness modelRiskDiagnosis | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis |