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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Product Discovery Test Card |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Half day | 20-35 min | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Test Card with a pre-set threshold | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |