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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Half day | 20–45 min | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | Small cross-functional group | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |