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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Product Strategy Impact Mapping |  Business Strategy Scenario Planning |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | When a goal needs to be connected to several possible paths, it shows chains of impact instead of feature lists. It connects business goal, behavior change, and measures. | Scenario Planning opens the view to several plausible futures instead of a single forecast. The method protects strategies from depending on too narrow an expected path. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Half day | 45-90 min | 0.5-2 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-8 | 4-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Impact Map, Outcome Hypotheses, Delivery Options | Scenario Set, Strategic Implications, Robust Options |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | OutcomesStrategyBehaviorPlanning | StrategyUncertaintyPlanning |