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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Business Strategy Value Chain Analysis |  Product Discovery Experiment Canvas |  Product Discovery Test Card |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list. | When experiments become unreadable after the fact, it arranges hypothesis, signal, and learning goal on a single canvas. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a Completed Experiment Canvas and a Success Metric. | The Test Card turns a critical assumption into a testable claim and specifies in advance which result counts as success. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | Half day | 30-60 min | 20-35 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 1-5 | 1-5 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Value Chain Map, Lever List | Completed Experiment Canvas, Success Metric | Test Card with a pre-set threshold |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryHypothesis |