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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of Value Chain Analysis with its method-specific working model.
Business Strategy
Value Chain Analysis
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.Value Chain Analysis shows where value is created, costs accrue, and differentiation becomes possible along the process. It compares strengths, risks, market logic, and courses of action. The result is captured as a value-chain map and lever list.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighHighMedium
Timedifferent
15-45 minHalf day1-4 Wochen45-60 min
Participantsdifferent
1-83-81-62-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesValue Chain Map, Lever ListExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summaryAssumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
StrategyBusiness modelDiagnosisAnalysis
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
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