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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-4 h or multiple rounds | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationExpertsForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow |