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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Agile Affinity Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | laufend | 30-90 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-12 | 3-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing |