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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations MORT Analysis |  Operations Family Tree Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a safety-relevant event or a system with high protection requirements, the method examines where controls failed. It exposes both technical and organizational gaps. | For a series of incidents with a similar pattern, the method arranges individual events as branches of a common origin. It makes visible which conditions keep recurring. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | Mehrere Tage bis Wochen | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-6 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | MORT Worksheets, Findings per Branch, Corrective Actions, Systemic Recommendations | Family Tree Diagram, Pattern Notes, Systemic Measures |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Root causeSafetySystemicIncident | Root causePatternsIncidentSystemic |