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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Systems Thinking Intervention Mapping |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | Intervention Mapping translates a need for change into a planned, evaluable program. The method connects target group, determinants, actions, and measurement into a traceable chain. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-5 Tage | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-12 | 2-12 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Logic Model, Change Objectives, Intervention Components, Evaluation Plan | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | ChangeSystems thinkingCapability | EstimationForecastingFlow |