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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Gemba Walk |  Operations Kaizen Event |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When there is uncertainty about the real course of a process, the method brings observation to the place where work happens. It combines perception, follow-up questions, and process knowledge so decisions rest on actual workflows instead of assumptions. | For a tightly scoped process segment with noticeable waste, the method bundles shared energy for change. It suits situations that call for fast learning loops and visible adjustments. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 30-120 min | 0.5-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-6 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Observation Notes, Improvement Ideas | Kaizen Charter, Waste List, Improvement Experiments, Standard Work Update |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanObservationProcessOperations | LeanContinuous improvementOperations |