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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Growth Funnel Analysis |  Growth Flywheel |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When many visitors or users drop off along the way, the reason behind the number often stays hidden. Funnel Analysis exposes these transitions and makes visible exactly where the path collapses. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 1-5 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Funnel report, Drop-off analysis, Optimization hypotheses | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | AnalyticsConversionGrowth | GrowthRetentionConversion |