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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Fishbone Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Fishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Root causeQualityOperations |
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