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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Operations Barrier Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | For a risk that can only be managed through multiple layers of protection, the method examines the effectiveness of each barrier. It shows where safeguards are missing, too weak, or fail under real conditions. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 2-6 h | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 | 2-6 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Barrier Inventory, Failure Analysis per Barrier, Action Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | RiskRoot causeSafety | Root causeSafetyIncident |