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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Domain Modeling Domain Context Map |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When a domain model and its associated contexts need to be thought through together, it creates a shared overview. It connects the business view and organizational boundary into a readable whole. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-10 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Domain Context Map, Boundary Notes, Ownership Map | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | Domain-Driven DesignContextBoundaries | EstimationForecastingFlow |